The AUD has been consolidating this week, trading in a tight range between most of the major currencies. This is largely due to a quiet week in terms of economic data, together with the fact that the markets have been waiting on news of the US stimulus package, which now appears to be almost ready for release. Tensions between both the US and China, as well as Australia and China, have been apparent too, which is hindering market appetite and the AUD strength that we’ve recently seen.
The AUD has performed better than expected against the NZD this week, despite lacklustre Chinese data and little data released for Australia. After a storming 2% gain from the recent low, it is likely we will see a pull back as the NZD has found its feet following successive strings of positive data. Rabobank is predicting that the 3-month view will see the AUD fall almost 3% from its current levels against the NZD, so a careful approach would be wise.
The AUD has been slowly climbing back to levels seen earlier this year, fuelled by positivity about the US stimulus package. Earlier in the week, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that she was pushing for the near-$2tn package to be passed quickly. The AUD will be coming up to resistance now and, after three straight days of gains, there is a chance we could see a correction. The markets will be focusing on the weekly US unemployment figures on Thursday — a weak result here could send the AUD back down if the markets turn risk averse.
Although the vaccine rollout in the UK has so far been a great success, the GBP has been struggling this week due to fears about multiple strains of the virus and concerns about the vaccines’ effectiveness. The AUD is currently sitting close to the highest point in 10 days against the GBP and, with UK GDP figures being released on Friday, it’s anticipated that we’ll see a contraction from the previous quarter as the UK has been in lockdown for the last six weeks.
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